Algorithma Crypto Brief # 7 - Forest for the Trees
Crypto market structure, capital flows, market movers & narrative
(Any views expressed in the below are the personal views of the author and should not form the basis for making investment decisions, nor be construed as a recommendation or advice to engage in investment transactions.)
Crypto Macro
Algorithma key Crypto Indicators
Macro Today - As in our last post , we continue to maintain that we are not out of the woods yet. We are still in bear market territory. While this might last few weeks and months, we are confident of the long term strength of this entire market. So much more money pouring in - has to go somewhere in crypto. Money always starts to buy BTC first, then moves on to ETH and then other alts and back. That is the nature of these markets.
1/ Today we’re announcing Crypto Fund III, a $2.2 billion fund to continue backing visionary crypto founders and help accelerate crypto into its next phaseCitibank also announced that they are entering crypto via their wealth management division. There is a lot of money on the sidelines waiting to enter. Dont get me wrong, we are still in bear market and we need to break 40K/ 42K comfortably before this new money comes in. This money is patient. Either they buy deep dips like what Cathywood did last week with her ARK fund or they go when the momentum is clearly there. We are in no mans land with a bearish bias, they dont like that. They are smart for a reason.
Still no onchain activity for BTC, or much for stablecoins. So ETH and alts are also weak. But if momentum starts to pick up beyond 40K, we could well easily run to 45-50k using massive short liquidations, new stablecoin inflows, and massive buy up by institutions back again. Won’t be very smooth, and volatility will reign supreme but look at the long term picture. Wouldn’t matter much in 2025 if the price is 500K and I bought at 10K and you bought at 50K.
For now, we are range trading. Buy the dips when you can and HODL for long term. DCA in (Dollar Cost Average). My target, as I always say, is the next halving now. I am accumulating for the next three years when I can. Not financial advice of course. We saw Mt Gox and then the 2017/18 ICO boom and it was gut wrenching to see markets drop like crazy after that. Each time it felt this is the end, but builders kept on building and here we are. This time is no different. In fact this time is even better with all the infra and institutional attention (and smart money) in there. Just a matter of time. Think long term and look for the Forest among these thorny tree leaves.
Another major feat…..Ether testnet went live on 25th June. And that should start a mega run for ETh in coming months. Be prepared.